The race for California governor is being reshaped following the abrupt exit of Eric Swalwell, with lesser-known Democratic candidates now seeing new opportunities.
Swalwell, who had been leading among Democratic contenders, recently withdrew from the race after facing multiple sexual assault allegations. His departure has left a significant bloc of voters up for grabs, drawing attention to how his support base will realign.
With Swalwell out, nine candidates remain in the race, including seven Democrats. The crowded Democratic field has led to a fragmentation of support, creating an unusual scenario in heavily Democratic California where Republican candidates are topping the polls.
Major progressive groups, including the California Teachers Association and the Service Employees International Union (SEIU), had previously backed Swalwell. However, they have yet to endorse a new candidate.
Political observers say that if a Democratic candidate successfully consolidates Swalwell’s supporters, they could mount a strong challenge against Republican frontrunners Steve Hilton and Chad Bianco, who currently hold the top two spots in polling.
According to a report by the Los Angeles Times on April 14, former Rep. Katie Porter is a leading candidate to benefit. The outlet noted that Porter shares a similar political profile with Swalwell, making her a natural choice for his former supporters.
A recent poll conducted by David Binder Research from April 1 to 6 showed Porter with 11% support, trailing billionaire Tom Steyer at 12% among Democratic candidates. Swalwell had previously held 18%, suggesting that if Porter captures a significant portion of his base, she could quickly move into the lead.
At the same time, lower-polling candidates are also gaining attention. Matt Mahan, mayor of San Jose, and former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra, currently polling at 5% and 4% respectively, could also benefit from redistributed support. Analysts say that even a partial shift in Swalwell’s base could propel one of them into a runoff position.
Mahan, in particular, has recently secured $12 million in new campaign funding, signaling plans for a more aggressive push in the coming weeks.
However, some analysts warn that Swalwell’s exit may not necessarily benefit Democrats overall. Political strategist Marva Diaz told CalMatters on April 13 that his withdrawal could deepen internal divisions within the party.
Because Swalwell dropped out after the official withdrawal deadline, his name will remain on the primary ballot. This raises concerns that some voters may still cast ballots for him, further splitting the Democratic vote.
Meanwhile, polling shows Republican candidate Hilton leading with over 20% support, while Bianco continues to gain ground and remains among the top contenders.
Despite Swalwell’s resignation from Congress on April 14, the allegations against him continue to escalate, adding pressure on the Democratic Party. Multiple women, including former staff members, have accused him of sexual assault and misconduct. One accuser, identified as Lonna Drewes from Beverly Hills, alleged during a press conference on April 14 that she was drugged and assaulted in a hotel room after becoming incapacitated following a glass of wine in 2018.
As the race intensifies, the redistribution of Swalwell’s support is expected to play a decisive role in determining whether Democrats can regain momentum—or whether Republican candidates will maintain their edge in an increasingly volatile contest.
