U.S. military expert calls for expanding role of USFK to include Taiwan contingencies

A U.S. military expert has renewed calls to expand the role of U.S. Forces Korea (USFK) beyond deterring North Korea to potentially include involvement in a Taiwan contingency.

The suggestion comes amid growing expectations of a trade and economic “package deal” between Korea and the United States — and concerns that the Donald Trump administration could use the reshaping of USFK as a bargaining chip.

The Atlantic Council, a Washington-based think tank, on July 10 published an issue brief titled “South Korea is the Ideal Anchor for the First Island Chain” by Lt. Col. Brian Kerg of the U.S. Marine Corps.

“There is no agreement, regulation or document that traps U.S. forces on the Korean Peninsula,” wrote Kerg. “If the Pacific becomes a war zone, no matter the threat, the United States gets a decisive vote in how its forces are employed, whether on or off the Korean Peninsula.”

Kerg noted that conflicts between “great power wars tend to expand horizontally” and that “there are many paths by which a Chinese invasion of Taiwan could lead to a North Korean attack on South Korea and vice versa.”

He also said, “Should the United States defend Taiwan against Chinese aggression, South Korea will inevitably become involved.”

He emphasized the need for the United States to invest more defense assets in Korea, positioning the country as “the anchor of the first island chain” in its broader strategy to counter China. The first island chain — a conceptual line running through Okinawa, Taiwan and the Strait of Malacca — is seen by Washington as the front line for deterring the expansion of Chinese naval power.

China has also drawn up the second and third island chains — which stretch from eastern Japan to Palau and from the Aleutian Islands to New Zealand, respectively — in a bid to undermine U.S. naval dominance in the Pacific. Beijing has recently expanded its reach with aircraft carrier strike groups.

Kerg wrote that “investing U.S. resources in South Korean security should rightly be seen as simultaneously defending against both North Korean and Chinese aggression,” suggesting the redeployment of some U.S.-based troops to Korea. Noting that half the approximately 18,000 U.S. troops stationed in Okinawa are being relocated to Guam and Hawaii, he argued for greater U.S. investment in Korean security infrastructure.

Kerg added, however, that Seoul is expected to shoulder most of the financial burden, writing that “Korea, where anti-Chinese attitudes are on the rise, would likely accept the additional investment. Korea would foot much of the bill for infrastructure supporting these additional forces per the terms of the Special Measures Agreement and is likely to continue to pay for their sustainment in the future.”

He also suggested the United States could stockpile essential military supplies in South Korea for use in the event of a conflict with North Korea or China, noting that Seoul would be unlikely to object even if those supplies were used in a conflict with Beijing.

Lt. Col. Kerg, who serves in operations planning in the U.S. Marine Corps, authored the brief as a nonresident fellow of the Atlantic Council. The think tank clarified that “the views expressed here are those of the author and do not represent the positions or opinions of the U.S. Marine Corps, the Department of Defense, or any part of the U.S. government.”

BY CHANG YOON-SEO [kim.minyoung5@joongang.co.kr]