With no trade deal before APEC, agreement may fall to Lee and Trump

South Korea and the United States ended their last round of senior trade talks before next week’s APEC summit without a breakthrough, possibly leaving it to Presidents Lee Jae Myung and Donald Trump to decide whether months of uneasy negotiation will end in compromise or confrontation.

Presidential Director of National Policy Kim Yong-beom and Industry Minister Kim Jung-kwan met with U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick in Washington for two hours on October 22 — their second meeting in less than a week — but emerged without an agreement.

The impasse suggests that Lee and Trump may have to make a political decision themselves when they meet on the sidelines of the APEC summit in Gyeongju next week.

Dispute over $350 billion investment package

Seoul’s national policy director told reporters after the talks that “some progress was made, but more discussions are needed,” adding that the negotiations were “not yet at the final stage.”

The two countries have remained divided over how to structure a $350 billion Korean investment package in the United States.

Trump has insisted that the entire amount be paid up front, while Seoul has resisted, citing financial and political constraints.

Negotiators have reportedly discussed extending the payment schedule and ensuring that Korea has a greater say in how the investments are allocated.

One Korean negotiator, speaking by phone, said, “Reducing the total investment amount is nearly impossible when President Trump is already touting the $350 billion as a political achievement.” The official added that stretching the payments over a longer period and creating mechanisms for Korean input would be “the most realistic compromise.”

Trump’s pressure and the tariff card

Industry Minister Kim Jung-kwan said on October 20 that the United States no longer insists on a full, up-front cash payment, hinting at a possible shift in Washington’s stance.

Some analysts say one proposal under discussion would keep the total investment but extend the payment period to more than eight years.

The key uncertainty is whether Trump would accept a timeline extending beyond his current term. That would contrast with Japan’s agreement to invest $550 billion over three and a half years — within Trump’s remaining tenure.

During his U.S. trip last week, Finance Minister Koo Yun-cheol warned that “while working-level officials understand Seoul’s position, the real uncertainty is whether President Trump himself will accept it.”

On October 22, the same day as the latest negotiations, Trump posted on Truth Social that the CEOs of General Motors and Ford had thanked him for tariffs on mid- and large-sized trucks, adding that tariffs are a “national security matter.”

The U.S. leader had once cut tariffs on Japanese cars to 15 percent in exchange for a major Japanese investment in the United States, only to later slap a 25 percent tariff on trucks, catching Tokyo off guard.

His comment on Truth Social was widely seen in Korea as a move to defend his tariff policy while turning up the pressure on Seoul.

All eyes on a ‘Gyeongju Showdown’

National policy director Kim said there was unlikely to be another in-person meeting before the APEC summit, adding that if necessary, “discussions could continue virtually.”

His remark suggested that the talks had moved beyond the level of working-level negotiators and that the final outcome would depend on a political decision between the two leaders.

After wrapping up the talks on October 22, the national policy director and industry minister boarded a return flight via Atlanta, skipping a direct route to save time.

“They didn’t have enough time to wait for a direct flight from Washington to Seoul,” a diplomatic source said of their “inconvenient route.”

The source added that their sleepless three-day schedule showed just how tight the timeline had become.

The back-to-back U.S. visits — the second within six days — were widely seen among diplomatic circles as an attempt to present Seoul’s final proposal before the summit and to brief Lee in time for a potential one-on-one with Trump.


U.S. secretary of state to visit Seoul

Trump told reporters at the White House on October 22 that he expected to make a deal on “everything” with Chinese President Xi Jinping on the APEC sidelines.

“I think we’re going to end up having a fantastic deal with China,” Trump said on October 20, insisting that his relationship with Xi means they would work out a “very fair deal.”

Diplomatic observers in Seoul said the broader strategic context could work in Korea’s favor.

“The United States has sought allied coordination on issues ranging from China’s rare earth export controls to sanctions on Russia,” a diplomatic source said.

“This makes Korea — a key technology and supply chain partner — an increasingly important player,” the source added, suggesting that it could give Korea leverage in the ongoing trade negotiations.

If the Korea-U.S. summit, set to take place on October 29, produces a trade agreement, the two sides are likely to release a fact sheet outlining the key details. Depending on the outcome, analysts say the announcement could also include security-related measures, such as plans to modernize the alliance and expand cooperation on nuclear energy.

The U.S. State Department also confirmed on October 22 that Secretary of State Marco Rubio will visit Korea during his upcoming Asia tour — his first trip to Seoul since taking office.