Trump-Xi schedule clash threatens to derail South Korea’s APEC ambitions

U.S. President Donald Trump is reportedly considering a one-night, two-day visit to South Korea starting Oct. 29, ahead of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit set to take place in Gyeongju on Oct. 31 and Nov. 1.

If this plan is finalized, Trump would likely miss the main event of the summit, which is being hosted this year by South Korea. The South Korean government says it is still working to finalize the schedule to ensure that Gyeongju serves as more than just a venue for a U.S.-China summit.

Trump is expected to attend the Asean summit in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, on Oct. 26 and 27, then travel to Japan from Oct. 27 to 29 to hold a summit with the newly elected Japanese prime minister, according to diplomatic sources on October 8.

He is expected to arrive in South Korea via Gimhae International Airport on the morning of Oct. 29, travel to Gyeongju, and hold a South Korea-U.S. summit with President Lee Jae Myung. He is then likely to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping the following day for a U.S.-China summit before departing in the afternoon.

China had initially hoped to host Trump in Beijing, but amid heightened tensions between the two countries, both sides reportedly viewed a visit to each other’s capital as diplomatically burdensome.

Observers say Gyeongju was chosen as a neutral venue after both leaders found diplomatic justification for a meeting — Trump was already scheduled to tour Asia, and Xi had a reason to visit South Korea as the next APEC host country.

On October 7, Trump confirmed his visit in remarks at the White House, saying, “I will meet Xi in Korea.”

However, under the current draft schedule, Trump would depart before the official APEC summit begins on Oct. 31. That means he would skip the main multilateral event hosted by South Korea, reducing his trip to a one-point visit for talks with Xi.

“This would be far from normal,” said Park Won-gon, professor of North Korean studies at Ewha Womans University. “When a U.S. president visits both South Korea and Japan, there’s usually an effort to balance the schedule. Spending three days in Japan with no pressing issues but skipping the main APEC events in South Korea could be seen as a diplomatic imbalance.”

Trump has consistently favored bilateral diplomacy over multilateral gatherings. Observers say he may view this trip more as an opportunity to negotiate with China over trade disputes than as a means to contribute to APEC’s founding goal of promoting free trade.

Some analysts also view his short stay in South Korea as a pressure tactic in the stalled South Korea-U.S. tariff negotiations.

If Gyeongju ends up serving solely as a backdrop for the U.S.-China talks, it could undercut the significance of APEC — South Korea’s first time hosting a multilateral summit since a series of political upheavals, including martial law and impeachment.

The South Korean government has framed this APEC as a symbolic return to the international stage and aims to lead global discussions on issues such as economic cooperation, artificial intelligence, supply chain resilience and climate action. Trump’s absence from the summit itself could undermine those ambitions.

If Trump leaves and Xi stays to attend the main APEC events, Xi could appear to be the summit’s de facto guest of honor. Should he use the opportunity to promote an anti-U.S. coalition, South Korea could find itself in a diplomatically awkward position.

Lee, who is set to meet both Trump and Xi during the summit period, now faces the challenge of maintaining balance between the two powers while producing tangible diplomatic outcomes.

The government had initially sought to arrange a state visit by Xi — his first in 11 years since 2014 — but that now appears unlikely. The recent cancellation of a reservation by China at The Shilla Seoul hotel is believed to be related to this change in plans.

“A state visit by Xi would require significant outcomes from the South Korea-China summit,” said Kang Jun-young, professor of Chinese political economy at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies. “But there aren’t many issues the two countries can agree on right now. China must also consider North Korea’s position, and with the Fourth Plenum of the 20th Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party scheduled for Oct. 20 to 23, Xi has pressing domestic political obligations.”

“A state visit should already be scheduled by now if it were happening,” noted a diplomatic source familiar with the negotiations. ”But state events don’t necessarily have to be in Seoul, and the U.S.-China summit schedule remains flexible, so we’ll need to monitor developments until the last minute.”

Further complicating matters, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, Chinese Premier Li Qiang and Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev are all expected to attend a military parade in Pyongyang on October 10 marking the 80th anniversary of the founding of the North’s ruling Workers’ Party.

Following a similar trilateral show of unity at Beijing’s Victory Day event last month, North Korea, China and Russia are once again highlighting their alignment, adding more complexity to the regional diplomatic landscape.

Meanwhile, speculation had circulated about a possible meeting between Trump and Kim at Panmunjom during the APEC period. But with Trump’s visit now expected to be shorter than anticipated, such a scenario appears increasingly unlikely.

“The South Korean government’s plan to use the Gyeongju APEC as a springboard for U.S.-China mediation or breakthroughs on the Korean Peninsula now faces serious obstacles,” said Kang. “A carefully crafted response strategy is urgently needed.”

BY PARK HYUN-JU [lim.jeongwon@joongang.co.kr]