Seoul to repatriate six North Koreans this week, despite radio silence from Pyongyang

Analysts interpret the move as an effort to rekindle inter-Korean engagement by eliciting a response from the North, which has thus far remained silent despite previous repatriation offers.

“All six North Korean individuals rescued in the East and Yellow Seas have expressed a strong desire to return home,” the Unification Ministry said on July 7. “The South Korean government aims to repatriate them swiftly and safely from a humanitarian standpoint.”

Following deliberations on repatriation methods, Seoul has decided to repair one of the boats the North Koreans had used and send them back across the Northern Limit Line (NLL) via sea, according to military sources.

“The boat from the Yellow Sea, being severely damaged, will be discarded, while the one from the East Sea will be refurbished for use,” said a source within the South Korean military.

While the South Korean government has notified the United Nations Command (UNC) and other relevant parties of its plan and schedule, it has yet to receive a response from Pyongyang.

This repatriation initiative is the second North Korea-related policy gesture under the Lee Jae Myung administration following the suspension of anti-North loudspeaker broadcasts on June 11. Its aim appears to be resolving the repatriation issue early on to prevent it from becoming a major point of contention in inter-Korean relations.

Last month, the Unification Ministry held an interagency meeting to curb the launch of anti-North Korean leaflets and voiced support for passing a revised Inter-Korean Relations Development Act — commonly referred to as the antileaflet law — before Liberation Day on Aug. 15. Some observers see this as groundwork for a more conciliatory message toward Pyongyang on the 80th anniversary of Korea’s liberation.

Officials also appear concerned that prolonging the stay of North Koreans who wish to return could constitute a human rights issue.

However, experts caution that North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s response remains unpredictable.

Unlike the suspension of anti-North broadcasts — which directly threatened Pyongyang’s internal control and prompted an immediate reciprocal halt to North Korean loudspeaker broadcasts — repatriating individuals who have spent extended time in the South could be seen as a threat to regime stability.

In particular, given that Kim Jong-un has directly defined inter-Korean relations as those of “two hostile countries” that are engaged in war, he could perceive the prospect of accepting those who have stayed in the South for a long time as a source of instability for the regime.

Some are questioning whether it is appropriate to send the North Korean nationals on a boat before confirming Pyongyang’s intention to accept them. This is because in a situation where trust between the South and the North has not been restored, repatriation could put North Korean residents at risk.

The South Korean government is making thorough preparations in case North Korea misunderstands the intention of the wooden boat carrying military and North Korean residents heading to the North, military sources said. This is evidence that the government is also aware of the dangers of this operation.

To mitigate the risk of misinterpretation or accidental escalation, sources say the government is considering having the Coast Guard — not the Navy — transport the individuals to international waters, where they would then transfer to the repaired boat and proceed to the North on their own.

In a statement to the press, the UNC underscored the importance of a “safe, humane and appropriate disposition.”

Following the 2019 forced repatriation of two North Korean fishermen, the UNC adopted new guidelines that stipulate confirming both the individual’s intent and the North’s willingness to accept them before proceeding. The UNC’s emphasis on safety and humanitarian principles appears to reflect those guidelines.