North may possess more than 400 nuclear weapons by 2040: Analyst

 

North Korea may possess more than 400 nuclear weapons by 2040, according to a new projection from a leading defense analyst. The estimate suggests a rapid expansion of the country’s arsenal as Pyongyang continues to strengthen its nuclear capabilities.

Lee Sang-kyu, chief of the nuclear security research division at the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses (KIDA), said on November 26 that the North currently holds as many as 150 nuclear weapons.

He noted that the figure could rise steadily over the next two decades. In addition, he said the stockpile may expand to as many as 243 weapons by 2030 and 429 by 2040 if current uranium enrichment trends continue.

North currently holds 150 nuclear bombs

Lee’s estimate includes between 115 and 131 uranium-based weapons and 15 to 19 plutonium-based bombs. Therefore, he concluded that the North’s arsenal may be two to three times larger than assessments by overseas research institutions, which generally place the stockpile at around 50 weapons.

The projection comes as North Korea has publicly emphasized its commitment to expanding its arsenal. In late 2022, leader Kim Jong-un called for “exponentially” increasing the number of nuclear weapons. He reaffirmed this direction in September of last year, stating that the country is consistently implementing policies intended to deter what it views as external threats.

These statements have coincided with Pyongyang’s efforts to upgrade the facilities and processes needed to produce nuclear materials. Therefore, analysts have cited these changes as key factors behind the projected growth in the North’s stockpile.

Potential Russian assistance and nuclear-powered submarine development

During his briefing, Lee also addressed the possibility that Russia could provide parts, materials, or technological support to assist North Korea’s development of a 5,000 to 6,000-ton submarine. However, he said it would likely take a decade or longer for the North to complete a small reactor suitable for the nuclear-powered submarine it aims to build.

In March, Kim Jong-un visited a shipyard to inspect ongoing work on a nuclear-powered submarine and warned that North Korea’s maritime defense capability would be projected “in any necessary waters without limitation.” The visit marked the first time Pyongyang officially revealed the construction of such a vessel.

A nuclear-powered submarine is one of several advanced weapons systems Kim has vowed to pursue. These efforts also include building spy satellites and solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missiles. In addition, North Korea has repeatedly framed these programs as necessary to counter perceived threats from hostile nations.

BY MOOYOUNG LEE  [lee.mooyoung@koreadaily.com]