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North Korea’s troop surge in Russia surpasses projections as ICBM launch looms

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The South Korean Presidential Office announced on October 30 that North Korea’s troop deployment to Russia is progressing faster than initially expected.

A senior official revealed to the press, “Intelligence authorities assess that at least 11,000 North Korean troops have already been deployed, with over 3,000 reportedly moving near conflict zones in western Russia.”

On October 28, President Yoon Suk Yeol expressed concerns that the involvement of North Korean troops in the Ukrainian frontline could be accelerating. This follows a recent report by South Korea’s National Intelligence Service (NIS), which stated that North Korea intends to send a total of 10,900 troops to Russia by the end of the year. However, according to the Presidential Office, the deployment has already exceeded this figure.

 

Kim Jong-un inspects the training conditions of combat troops during his visit to a North Korean special operations unit training base on September 11. [KCNA, YONHAP]

The official also disclosed that Russian Security Council Secretary Sergey Shoigu, a close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, visited North Korea from October 23 to 24.

“Following global condemnation of North Korea’s troop deployment, Secretary Shoigu met with North Korean officials to discuss response strategies,” the official said, adding that North Korean Foreign Minister Choe Son-hui is currently in Russia to further address this issue.

The senior official also noted that the North Korean troops deployed in Russia are using Russian military uniforms and equipment, a deliberate move to blend into Russian military operations. “Given challenges like language barriers, it’s unclear when they might enter active combat,” he stated. “However, if North Korean troops gain real combat experience and adopt modern warfare tactics, they could become a direct military threat to us.”

The official indicated that South Korea may establish a monitoring team to analyze North Korea’s activities in this area.

Internally, North Korea appears to be tightly controlling information to prevent public unrest, forbidding military officers from using mobile phones and explaining to families that their deployed relatives are undergoing training.

 

North Korean Foreign Minister Choe Son-hui shakes hands with Russian Ambassador to North Korea Alexsandr Matsegora before departing Pyongyang on October 28 for an official visit to Russia. [KCNA, YONHAP]

South Korean intelligence reports also suggest that North Korea has completed preparations for an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) launch, which may coincide with the U.S. presidential election in November.

A representative from People Power Party disclosed that North Korea’s mobile ICBM launch platform has been positioned in a specific area, hinting at a potential test of reentry technology for their Hwasong-18 solid-fuel ICBM, which can be launched on short notice.

Meanwhile, South Korea’s National Assembly was briefed on North Korea’s ongoing military satellite tests and an expected additional launch attempt before year-end. However, no imminent launch indicators have been detected at the Sohae Satellite Launching Station.

South Korea’s Defense Minister Lee Jong-sup and U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin held the 56th Security Consultative Meeting in Washington, D.C., where they issued a joint statement strongly condemning North Korea’s troop deployment to Russia.

The allies also agreed to incorporate nuclear use scenarios into future joint military exercises, signaling a shift in response capabilities as North Korea’s nuclear capabilities evolve, bolstered by Russia’s potential military technology support.

BY KEUNPYUNG LEE, YOUNGNAM KIM [kim.youngnam@koreadaily.com]