North Korea vows ‘resolute counteraction posture’ to South Korea-U.S. military drills

North Korea threatened to exercise its “sovereign right” in response to the Ulchi Freedom Shield (UFS), the annual South Korea–U.S. military exercise, despite schedule adjustments made at Seoul’s request. Analysts see the move as an attempt to raise leverage in future talks.

In a statement in the state-run Rodong Sinmun on August 11, North Korean Defense Minister No Kwang-chol said Pyongyang “strongly” denounces the United States and South Korea “for their provocative moves of clearly showing the stand of military confrontation with the DPRK and making another serious challenge to the security environment on the Korean peninsula and in the region and solemnly warn them of the negative consequences to be entailed by them,” referring to the North by the acronym for its official name.

Calling the exercise — which simulates “a real nuclear war situation” — a “direct military provocation” against the North, No claimed it “a real threat to amplify the unpredictability of the situation on the Korean peninsula in the state of armistice and freeze the instability of the regional situation.”

“The armed forces of the DPRK will cope with the war drills of the United States and the Republic of Korea with a thoroughgoing and resolute counteraction posture and strictly exercise the sovereign right of the DPRK at the level of the right to self-defense in a case of any provocation going beyond the boundary line,” No said.

This year’s UFS runs through Aug. 28, comprising computer-based command post exercises and field training exercises (FTX). According to the South Korean military, roughly 20 of the 40 planned FTX drills have been postponed to September.

Despite this deferral, the North’s defense minister repeated Pyongyang’s standard criticism of the drills as a “rehearsal for invasion.”

Lim Eul-chul, a professor at the Institute for Far Eastern Studies at Kyungnam University, said the North is “leveraging the joint exercises to bolster internal unity, justify nuclear and missile advancement and strengthen military ties with Russia” and is expected to “demonstrate its deterrence capability through tests of new missiles during the training period, as in the past.”

With the 80th anniversary of the founding of the Workers’ Party in October and the Ninth Party Congress set for year’s end — the final year of the five-year defense plan that North Korean leader Kim Jong-un laid out in 2021 — Pyongyang may stage military provocations to produce results it can tout domestically and abroad.

During joint drills in the first half of 2023, North Korea launched its KN-23 short-range ballistic missile and Hwasong-17 intercontinental ballistic missile, and claimed to have tested its “Haeil” underwater nuclear weapons system.

Some analysts noted the possibility of a “conditional response” rather than unconditional escalation, given the Lee Jae Myung administration’s emphasis on easing inter-Korean tensions. No’s reference to “any provocative act crossing the line” was seen as signaling such a stance.

“Considering conciliatory measures such as the partial postponement of field exercises and removal of loudspeakers along the border, the North’s provocations may be limited,” Lim said, though he cautioned that “depending on developments, high-intensity military reactions in coordination with Russia cannot be ruled out.”

BY CHUNG YEONG-GYO [lim.jeongwon@joongang.co.kr]