North Korea could possess 50 ICBMs by 2035, U.S. intelligence warns

North Korea ICBM threat levels could surge dramatically by 2035, with Pyongyang potentially fielding as many as 50 intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), according to a new assessment from the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA).

The report, released on May 13, evaluates missile threats to the U.S. homeland and confirms that North Korea has successfully tested ballistic missiles capable of striking the entire continental United States. Currently, the agency estimates the regime holds fewer than 10 operational ICBMs but could increase that number by approximately 40 within the next decade.

“ICBMs are generally capable of carrying one or more nuclear warheads,” the report states. “There are no regions within the U.S. mainland beyond the reach of existing North Korean missiles.”

U.S. Commander Raises Alarm Over Strategic Weapons

Gen. Gregory Guillot, commander of U.S. Northern Command, reinforced the DIA’s findings in written testimony submitted the same day to the Senate Armed Services Committee. He warned that North Korea continues to advance its strategic weapons programs in defiance of global non-proliferation efforts.

“Recent rhetoric from the regime indicates that Kim Jong-un intends to transition from research and development to mass production and deployment,” Guillot said. “Such a shift could rapidly expand North Korea’s arsenal and undermine U.S. missile defense capabilities within a few years.”

Guillot highlighted growing concerns over North Korea’s Hwasong-19, first tested on October 31, 2023. The missile builds on the Hwasong-18, featuring improved propulsion and faster launch readiness.

“The Hwasong-19’s solid-fuel design reduces launch preparation time,” Guillot said. “This limits our ability to provide early warnings and increases the risk of a surprise nuclear strike on North American targets.”

Strategic Threats Beyond the Peninsula

The general identified North Korea, alongside China, Russia, and Iran, as one of the four primary adversaries of the United States. He emphasized that the likelihood of direct conflict is growing, driven in part by those nations’ perceptions of declining Western influence.

“These countries may not seek open conflict, but their willingness to challenge the U.S. is increasing,” Guillot noted. “This raises the potential for dangerous miscalculations.”

He also cited Kim Jong-un’s recent abandonment of inter-Korean unification policies and his increasingly aggressive diplomacy as warning signs. “There is a growing risk that renewed conflict could erupt on the Korean Peninsula after more than 70 years of armistice,” he said.

North Korea-Russia Military Ties Under Scrutiny

Guillot further expressed concern over North Korea’s deepening military cooperation with Russia, especially following the outbreak of war in Ukraine. Reports of North Korean troop deployments to assist Russia highlight what he called a “clear signal” of their shared intent to challenge the Western-led international order.

“This cooperation raises serious questions about what North Korea may receive in return,” Guillot said. “There is concern that Russia could offer expertise that accelerates Pyongyang’s development of advanced strategic weapons.”

BY MOOYOUNG LEE  [lee.mooyoung@koreadaily.com]