North Korean leader Kim Jong-un is intensifying his focus on war preparations, and a military clash in the West Sea is becoming increasingly likely, according to a leading U.S. expert on North Korea.
Robert Carlin, a fellow at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies, expressed these concerns during a webinar hosted by the Stimson Center on March 24. He referred to Kim’s statements about establishing the northern maritime border between Yeonpyeong and Baengnyeong islands.
Kim declared at the Supreme People’s Assembly in January, “As long as the southern border of our country is established, we will not tolerate any other borderlines, including the unlawful northern limit line [pronounced by South Korea and the United States]. Any South Korean violation of our territory, airspace, or territorial waters, even by 0.001 millimeters, will be considered a provocation for war.”
Kim also mentioned the necessity to amend parts of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea’s constitution concerning territory, territorial waters, and airspace, as the current constitution lacks these provisions. “He specifically targeted the West Sea and suggested that this issue should be incorporated into the constitution at the next assembly,” Carlin explained. “Typically, following the January meeting, there is another one in September or October. This gives us a three- to four-month window where tensions could significantly escalate,” he added.
Carlin highlighted that Kim Jong-un observed a missile launch from the east coast in January, attended by military officials from the west coast. “Kim Jong-un’s persistent focus on war preparations suggests a potential conflict in the West Sea,” he noted.
Carlin raised concerns about the perception of North Korea’s ambitions in the West Sea, stating, “Even South Koreans sometimes downplay North Korea’s intentions to seize islands in the West Sea, but such actions constitute acts of war. If Kim asserts a new border that includes West Sea islands as North Korean territory, we are nearing a critical juncture.”
He further commented on Kim’s readiness for conflict and his anticipation of a strong reaction from South Korea. Additionally, Carlin referred to Kim’s end-of-year address, which hinted at a “great event” – interpreted as the forceful reunification of the Korean Peninsula.
Carlin also discussed Russian President Vladimir Putin’s potential visit to North Korea and the implications of a new treaty between North Korea and Russia, reminiscent of the 1961 treaty with its mutual military assistance clauses. “Such a treaty could significantly alter the geopolitical dynamics in Northeast Asia,” he remarked.
On the U.S. political front, Carlin speculated that Kim Jong-un might favor Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential election, perceiving it as an opportunity for North Korea to advance its agenda with less resistance from the U.S.
Lastly, Carlin, alongside Professor Siegfried Hecker, drew attention in January with a piece for 38 North, asserting their belief that “Kim Jong-un has strategically decided to pursue a path to war.”
Yonhap
