Trump H-1B realignment cleans up the lottery, not a ban

H-1B was originally created to temporarily supplement hard-to-find specialized professional talent in the United States. The White House proclamation, “Restriction on Entry of Certain Nonimmigrant Workers,” announced on September 19, has begun to realign that purpose to current realities.

Beginning September 21, new H-1B employer petitions (Form I-129) must be accompanied by a $100,000 payment; without it, even an issued visa will face restrictions at the point of entry. The measure applies only to new filings; existing visa holders, petitions filed before September 21, renewals, travel, and reentry are excluded. It will operate for 12 months, with case-by-case national-interest exceptions available. This is not a padlock—it is a front-end filter to determine who is willing to see the process through and be accountable.

The initial filter at the registration stage is already visible in the numbers. In the FY 2026 electronic registration, once registrants were tied to individual beneficiaries and passport data was verified, valid registrations fell by 26.9 percent—from 470,342 the previous year to 343,981—and the average registrations per beneficiary dropped to 1.01.

Even so, the regular 65,000 cap and the 20,000 master’s cap were fully allocated by July 18. Demand remains; what has been stripped out are duplicates and noise. As of the 21st, the $100,000 at the entry stage has begun to take effect. That price signal is likely to rewrite the math for “cheap-and-many” mass filings up front, and allow only positions with clear value to reach the lottery hall. The lottery remains, but access to the hall is increasingly curated first.

This trajectory aligns with the program’s architecture. To use H-1B, an employer must file a Labor Condition Application (LCA) disclosing the role, wage, worksite, and duration, and must pay at least the higher of the company’s actual wage or the local prevailing wage. Add prohibitions on strike/lockout replacements and the obligation to pay during employer-caused nonproductive time, and the math never really favored “replacing a $120,000 American salary with a $70,000 H-1B.”

The latest change simply layers a cost filter at the gate onto that framework—shifting the game from stuffing the lottery to a commitment game where you pay the true price.

And the proclamation’s Section 4 sets the next steps. It directs the Department of Labor to initiate rulemaking to recalibrate prevailing wage levels, and the Department of Homeland Security to craft selection criteria that prioritize high-wage, highly skilled applicants. Clean up registration, verify commitment through price at entry, and lock the standards in regulation: a triple filter built into the system.

There will be near-term ripples. Early-stage and small firms may feel the cost more acutely, and some roles and regions could see higher hiring costs and longer lead times. During the transition, temporary confusion is also possible as administrative guidance and review standards percolate through the field.

Even so, the measure is limited to new filings, runs for 12 months, and leaves a national-interest lane open for strategic sectors and key talent. The axis is shifting from “Are we blocking hiring?” to “Who will see it through and enter responsibly?”

Judge it by the data. Because the $100,000 payment kicks in for petitions filed after September 21, the main stage for its effects will be late FY 2026 into early FY 2027. At that point, look to three things: the degree to which duplicate and sham registrations shrink; whether the approvals remain anchored in high-skill roles while preserving small and midsize sponsor entry; and how actual wage distributions shift after wage and selection rules are updated.

On the facts to date, the conclusion is straightforward. The program hasn’t shut its doors. It has tidied up the path into the lottery hall and, quietly but clearly, turned toward a lane where only those prepared to see it through remain.

BY YOONJAE JUNG [jung.yoonjae@koreadaily.com]