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Thursday, March 28, 2024

Allies considering trilateral security body: Reports

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Korea's Sejong the Great, front, USS Barry, middle, and the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force's JS Atago, rear, sail in the international waters of the East Sea on Feb. 22, as the three countries held a trilateral missile defense exercise amid heightened tensions caused by North Korea's recent missile launches, in this photo released by the Joint Chiefs of Staff. [YONHAP]
Korea’s Sejong the Great, front, USS Barry, middle, and the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force’s JS Atago, rear, sail in the international waters of the East Sea on Feb. 22, as the three countries held a trilateral missile defense exercise amid heightened tensions caused by North Korea’s recent missile launches, in this photo released by the Joint Chiefs of Staff. [YONHAP]

South Korea, the United States and Japan may consider establishing an extended deterrence consultative body, or even an “Indo-Pacific NATO” scheme, to counter nuclear threats in the region, said a growing number of reports as the three countries discuss and prepare summits set to take place over the next few weeks.

The Yomiuri Shimbun, a local Japanese paper, reported on Wednesday that Washington had approached the governments of Japan and South Korea to “establish a new consultation body on nuclear deterrence,” adding that Japan is considering accepting the proposal and that the response from South Korea has also been positive.

The Foreign Ministry in Seoul on the same day released a statement alluding to such a consultative body.

“The Republic of Korea and the United States are operating various consultative bodies to strengthen extended deterrence in preparation for North Korean nuclear and missile threats and are closely discussing ways to operate these consultative bodies more effectively,” it said, a statement that was echoed by the State Department as well.

The Republic of Korea is the official name of South Korea.

A trilateral extended deterrence body would transform Northeast Asia’s hub-and-spoke security structure centered on the United States into a more integrated allied structure.

Seoul and Washington have their Extended Deterrence Strategy and Consultation Group that brings together the two allies’ foreign and defense ministers regularly, and Tokyo and Washington have their Extended Deterrence Dialogue, but a trilateral extended deterrence scheme does not yet exist.

Such a body would be key in the case of a military contingency in the region, said Go Myong-hyun, a senior researcher on foreign policy at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies, a Seoul-based think tank.

“In the case of an emergency in the region, South Korea, the United States and Japan will have to move together in the form of a de-facto trilateral alliance,” Go said. “Hence the three countries taking steps early on to discuss possible options on the table, share information and coordinate training through a consultative body would only enhance their deterrence against North Korea.

“If South Korea and Japan can work together with same voice, the U.S. nuclear umbrella in the region would be further strengthened,” he added.

Some experts have gone so far to suggest that an Indo-Pacific version of the NATO body on nuclear matters, the Nuclear Planning Group (NPG), may be something that Washington and its allies in the region including Australia may be crafting long-term.

“In the long term, the U.S. will want to create a multilateral platform for extended deterrence discussions modeled after NATO’s NPG, including trilateral consultations with South Korea, the U.S., and Japan,” said Jeon Kyung-joo, a researcher at the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses. “The U.S. emphasis on such integrated deterrence against China and others will also apply in the nuclear field.”

The implications for China, as well as how Beijing would respond to such an alliance, have not been missed by the Korean administration.

“The main purpose of security cooperation between South Korea, the U.S. and Japan is to protect the Korean Peninsula and surrounding areas from North Korea’s continuing threat,” said a senior-ranking Foreign Ministry official on Friday. “We have made it clear in our statements that security cooperation between South Korea, the U.S. and Japan does not have hostile intentions towards China.”

President Yoon Suk Yeol is scheduled to meet with U.S. President Joe Biden in Washington next month and with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida next week.

Korea and Japan, mired for years in diplomatic spats centering on historic issues, recently appeared to reach a breakthrough when the South Korean government announced a measure to have Korean companies compensate the victims of forced labor, which was followed by invitation from Tokyo for the summit.

It remains to be seen if their intelligence-sharing mechanism, the General Security of Military Information Agreement (Gsomia), is also on track. The agreement needs annual renewal, which was suspended by South Korea in 2019 after Japan placed export restrictions on Korea.

“If the export control issues between the two countries are resolved sooner or later, Gsomia will likely be resolved naturally,” said the Foreign Ministry official.

BY PARK HYUN-JU, ESTHER CHUNG [chung.juhee@joongang.co.kr]