The California Democratic Party is grappling with a potential nightmare scenario in the 2026 gubernatorial race. With Republican candidates currently dominating the polls, Democratic leadership has begun a high-stakes effort to consolidate their fractured field. The urgency stems from a recent Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) survey showing Republicans Steve Hilton and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco leading with 39% and 32% support, respectively. In contrast, prominent Democrats like former Rep. Katie Porter (19%), Rep. Eric Swalwell (18%), and billionaire Tom Steyer (14%) are trailing significantly.
This polling gap is particularly dangerous due to California’s “top-two” primary system, where the two candidates with the most votes advance to the general election regardless of party affiliation. With nine Democrats currently in the race splitting the liberal vote, the party faces a real risk of being shut out of the November ballot entirely, potentially leaving voters to choose between two Republicans in a traditionally blue state.
Leadership Demands and Candidate Resistance
In response to the looming crisis, Rusty Hicks, Chair of the California Democratic Party, issued a blunt public ultimatum on March 3. He urged low-polling candidates to “soberly assess” their viability and suggested that those without a clear path to victory should suspend their campaigns before the April 15 deadline. Governor Gavin Newsom echoed this sentiment during a book talk near Los Angeles’ Koreatown, stating that he agrees with the need for consolidation to prevent a “Trump-aligned Republican” from taking the governor’s mansion.
However, the call to step down has met fierce resistance from within the party. Candidate Tony Thurmond criticized the move as an attempt to sideline diverse voices, asserting that his campaign is a mission to “protect democracy.” Political analysts, including Dan Schnur of USC and UC Berkeley, suggest this deadlock may persist. Schnur noted that with only a few percentage points separating the top Democratic contenders, no single candidate feels a moral or political obligation to blink first, making the upcoming primary one of the most unpredictable in California history.
[By Yoonseo Song]
