Up $351 From Last Year, But Falls Short of White House’s $1,000 Projection
The average tax refund during the early weeks of the 2026 filing season has increased compared to last year, but it remains well below the White House’s projection of a $1,000 boost.
According to data released by the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) on Feb. 27, the average refund amount through Feb. 20 stands at $3,804. That represents an increase of $351, or 10.2%, compared with the $3,453 average refund during the same period last year.
The comparison reflects filing data through Feb. 20, 2026, versus Feb. 21, 2025. The IRS began accepting and processing 2026 federal income tax returns on Jan. 26, meaning the figures represent roughly the first four weeks of the filing season.
Refund Volume Declines
While the average refund amount has risen, the total number of refunds issued has declined.
The IRS reported issuing more than 28.7 million refunds through Feb. 20, down about 3% from 29.6 million refunds during the same timeframe last year.
Despite the lower volume, the total dollar amount refunded so far has reached $109.3 billion, up 6.9% from a year earlier.
Below White House Expectations
Although refunds are trending higher, they remain well short of the White House’s earlier projection.
The administration has promoted the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” arguing that new tax provisions could raise average refunds by $1,000 or more this year. The legislation includes deductions for tip income, overtime pay, interest on new car loans for vehicles assembled in the United States, and an enhanced deduction for seniors.
For reference, the average federal income tax refund at the end of the 2025 filing season was $3,167. While this year’s early average of $3,804 marks a meaningful increase, it does not yet approach the $1,000 gain suggested in public statements.
Tax experts caution that early-season averages can fluctuate as more returns are processed.
EITC and Child Tax Credit Timing
By law, the IRS cannot issue refunds before Feb. 15 for returns claiming the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) or the Additional Child Tax Credit (ACTC).
The agency expects that early filers who claimed those credits, selected direct deposit, and encountered no processing issues will see refunds deposited into bank accounts or debit cards by March 2.
The federal tax filing deadline remains April 15. As more returns are filed in the coming weeks, refund averages and total payout figures could shift further.
