California Electricity Costs to Rise $320 Under Trump Energy Bill, Analysis Finds

California households are projected to pay $320 more per year for electricity by 2035, following the passage of President Donald Trump’s “big beautiful” bill, according to an analysis by Energy Innovation reported by CNBC.

The bill, signed on July 4, eliminates key clean energy tax credits, caps renewable energy subsidies, and expands oil and gas leasing. These policy changes are expected to slow the development of new clean energy sources and increase dependence on natural gas, which will likely become more expensive as demand grows.

Robbie Orvis, senior director at Energy Innovation, said that when the clean energy tax credits phase out at the end of 2025, electricity bills will climb. “This will raise electricity bills and increase reliance on natural gas,” he said. “That’s a direct outcome of fewer clean power projects coming online just as energy demand hits record highs.”

Although the analysis includes data for all U.S. states, California is among the hardest hit. The report notes that the state’s leadership in clean energy adoption also makes it vulnerable when federal support is withdrawn. Without tax incentives, California may struggle to maintain its renewable energy momentum, placing more pressure on consumers already paying some of the nation’s highest utility rates.

Nationally, the average household energy bill is expected to rise by $170 per year by 2035 under Trump’s bill. A separate study by Princeton University’s Rapid Energy Policy Evaluation and Analysis Toolkit estimates an even higher increase—$280 annually. States such as Oklahoma and Texas are also expected to see sharp increases, but California remains in the upper tier of projected cost hikes.

Energy Innovation’s analysis compares projected 2035 costs with and without the bill’s provisions. The estimate includes energy use in both homes and vehicles and focuses primarily on electricity and natural gas. Alaska and Hawaii were not included in the report.

Much of the cost increase stems from the repeal of nearly a dozen clean energy incentives introduced during Former President Joe Biden’s administration, as well as some that predate it. These rollbacks are expected to affect states like California more deeply, due to their investment in renewable infrastructure.

With federal support vanishing, the future of California’s clean energy transition—and its electricity affordability—now hangs in the balance.