Trump-Kim summit possibility raised ahead of APEC in South Korea

A U.S. expert on Korean affairs has suggested that a renewed Trump-Kim summit possibility could emerge during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in October, if U.S. President Donald Trump travels to South Korea.

Victor Cha, Korea Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), stated during a June 30 online seminar that the recent U.S. strike on Iranian nuclear facilities may have rendered North Korea’s complete, verifiable, and irreversible denuclearization (CVID) effectively impossible.

“One of the consequences of the U.S. airstrike on Iran might be that CVID for North Korea is essentially finished,” Cha said. He noted that North Korea could interpret the attack as proof that nuclear weapons offer the ultimate protection, reinforcing the belief that pursuing a nuclear arsenal was the “right path.”

Cha added that it remains unclear whether the U.S. strike on Iran will lead to renewed talks with North Korea. However, he left open the possibility that Pyongyang might return to negotiations to avoid facing similar military pressure.

He further suggested that the Trump administration could be motivated to engage North Korea diplomatically to disrupt cooperation between Pyongyang and Tehran, including arms transfers to Russia and potential support for Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. While a return to full denuclearization talks may be unlikely, both countries still have strategic reasons to maintain dialogue.

Looking ahead, Cha highlighted that if Trump visits South Korea for the APEC summit, a meeting at Panmunjom with Kim Jong-un could be possible. Trump and Kim previously held a historic encounter at the inter-Korean border in June 2019, and another high-profile meeting could carry diplomatic significance during the U.S. election season.

Cha also warned of expanding security risks stemming from increased North Korea–Russia cooperation. He argued that North Korea’s military support to Russia, in exchange for benefits, is weakening China’s influence over Pyongyang. If North Korea expands its role to support Iran, he added, the resulting instability could affect the Middle East as well.

BY HAN YESEUL   [hyeon.yeseul@joongang.co.kr]