Prices expected to keep rising through March; Southern California already above $5.20 in some areas
Gasoline prices are continuing to climb across California, and analysts warn that if the ongoing conflict in the Middle East persists, drivers in the state could soon face $7 per gallon gasoline.
Major U.S. economic media outlets reported that rising geopolitical tensions are expected to push fuel prices higher, particularly along the West and East Coasts. On March 9, some reports projected that regular gasoline in California could eventually reach the $7 range if the current trend continues.
Yahoo Finance reported that if the war does not end soon and current market conditions persist, California drivers could see $7-per-gallon gasoline before summer.
California’s gasoline prices have already climbed to their highest level in nearly two years.
According to the American Automobile Association (AAA), the national average gasoline price reached $3.45 per gallon as of March 8, marking a 16% increase from the previous week. While the increase may appear moderate nationwide, analysts say California has already entered a sharper price escalation phase.
Meanwhile, prediction market Polymarket estimates a 63% probability that the U.S. average gasoline price will reach $4.50 per gallon by the end of March, roughly one dollar higher than current levels. The outlook reflects growing consumer concern over rising energy costs.
Crude oil prices have also surged. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) recently climbed to around $90 per barrel, putting additional upward pressure on gasoline prices.
California has already felt the impact. The state’s average price for regular gasoline is now about $5.15 per gallon. AAA warns that if the conflict continues into the start of the summer driving season in May, prices could potentially rise to between $7 and $8 per gallon.
Last weekend, some gas stations in downtown Los Angeles posted prices as high as $7.61 per gallon for regular gasoline, drawing widespread attention.
According to fuel price tracking website GasBuddy, as of March 9 several Northern California counties have already surpassed the $5.20 average level, including Sonoma and Santa Clara counties. Humboldt County has already exceeded $5.70 per gallon.
In Southern California, Los Angeles County averages about $5.17 per gallon, while Orange County averages around $5.13 per gallon.
However, many drivers say prices posted at individual gas stations often appear higher than statewide averages.
Kim Sun-hoon, a resident of Downey, said rising gasoline prices are becoming increasingly stressful for drivers.
“You can’t really stock up on gasoline ahead of time, so you’re forced to accept the price,” Kim said. “At discount stations like Costco, the lines have already gotten so long that I avoid them. The rising prices feel like a car with broken brakes.”
California’s gasoline prices often rise faster than those in other states due to structural supply issues. The state currently operates only about 14 major refineries, and when crude supply disruptions occur, production can slow. Importing gasoline from outside California also adds transportation and distribution costs, pushing prices even higher.
Oil prices, however, showed some signs of easing late Monday. Brent crude fell 4.61% to $88.42 per barrel, while WTI dropped 6.56% to $84.94, both slipping below the $90 mark.
Analysts said the decline was partly driven by speculation that G7 finance ministers may release strategic petroleum reserves, as well as comments from President Donald Trump suggesting the war could end sooner than expected.
In a phone interview with CBS News on March 9, Trump said he believes “the war may be entering its final phase,” raising hopes that tensions could ease and oil prices stabilize.
